137 studies show rising intolerance for uncertainty

The average college student today feels more discomfort when the outcome of a situation is unknown than their peers did three decades ago.

Jeroen van Baar, a psychiatric epidemiology researcher at the Boston University School of Public Health, analyzed 137 studies that utilized the same scale to measure intolerance of uncertainty. These studies tracked responses from college students beginning in the 1990s. The data reveals that average scores have risen substantially over that period.

The term describes individuals whose reaction to not knowing is far more intense than the situation warrants. Van Baar suggested that smartphones may be a contributing factor. These devices allow users to know almost everything in an instant, which removes many everyday opportunities to practice not knowing. People no longer get lost because of GPS, and they can settle trivial debates immediately. This constant access may have given people less opportunity to become comfortable with the unknown.

Michel Dugas, a psychology professor at the University of Québec in Outaouais, noted that uncertainty is a fundamental part of life, whether regarding relationships, health, or finances. Learning to deal with not knowing is a fundamental skill for quality of life. He observed that uncertainty is a fundamental part of life, whether it’s our relationships, our health, our finances. Learning to be able to deal with not knowing is a fundamental skill for quality of life.

Nick Carleton, a psychology professor at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada, explained that discomfort with uncertainty exists on a continuum. He argued that a degree of caution makes evolutionary sense. People who absolutely loved uncertainty likely went into dangerous caves and did not get to reproduce. Conversely, people who were too scared of uncertainty likely never left their safe space and starved to death.

When general unease crosses into anxiety that interferes with daily life, professionals recommend seeking help. Dugas treats patients through behavioral experiments that safely expose them to uncertainty. One patient who worried intensely about grades was asked to wait 48 hours before checking a test result that had been posted online. The patient’s distress was intense at first but diminished considerably by the second day. Dugas stated that new learning can only really happen when you experience what you’re afraid of.

Ryan Jane Jacoby, a clinical psychologist and researcher at Massachusetts General Hospital, advises patients to resist the urge to eliminate every unknown. When plans are disrupted, she suggests asking whether the problem is within your control. If it can be solved, narrow the possibilities to three or four reasonable options, weigh their advantages and disadvantages, and make a decision. Then resist repeatedly reconsidering it. She noted that there probably is no perfect choice. When nothing can be done, she recommends shifting from problem-solving to acceptance through mindfulness or an absorbing activity.

Pema Chodron, a prominent American Buddhist, writes in her book Comfortable with Uncertainty that practitioners are warriors of nonaggression who accept that they can never know what will happen next. She writes that we can never avoid uncertainty and that this not-knowing is part of the adventure. Carleton recommended acknowledging negative emotions and asking whether something worthwhile might emerge from a disruption. Jacoby suggested remembering what it was like as a kid, when surprises were exciting. She noted that kids embrace the curveballs, and as we get older, we tend to worry more and think about all of the potential uncertainties. Dugas added that if you are not able to deal with the fact that the universe is uncertain, you are going to have a really difficult time being happy and having a good quality of life.