Bob Carr: US will never hand over $368 billion deal's subs

The Aukus pact is worth $368 billion, but former foreign affairs minister Bob Carr says the nuclear submarines at its core will never reach Australian shores. Carr told Guardian Australia that officials in Canberra and Washington understand the United States will not transfer the vessels. He argues the two nations are "living a lie" about the deal's future.

Carr, who served as foreign affairs minister under Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, predicts US-operated submarines will be based in Australia instead. He believes a future American president will view China's military strength as too great a risk to allow the transfer of three or more Virginia-class boats. Carr also questioned whether the defense departments in both countries still support the arrangement. He noted that heavy spending on submarines is straining budgets for other military equipment.

He warned that technology changes emerging from the war in Ukraine could outpace the value of the submarine capability. Australia has already paid more than $3 billion toward US submarine manufacturing. The country committed to roughly $4.6 billion over the life of the agreement. Additional billions are funding infrastructure and workforce development.

Labor supported the nuclear submarine plan while in opposition. The deal was signed in 2021 after talks between Scott Morrison, Joe Biden, and Boris Johnson. The schedule calls for Australia to receive its first Virginia-class submarine in 2032. Subsequent boats are due at four-year intervals. A purpose-built SSN Aukus model is set for service in 2042.

Doubts about the timeline have grown due to production delays and rising costs for the US Navy. Any transfer requires approval from the US president and depends on American military needs. A crowdfunded public inquiry released earlier in November called for the agreement to end immediately. The inquiry was led by Peter Garrett and Admiral Chris Barrie. Critics argued the deal could pull Australia into a conflict with China.

The Albanese government dismissed the inquiry's report. Former ministers Gareth Evans, Linda Reynolds, and Christopher Pyne supported the deal, while Carr and Malcolm Turnbull presented evidence against it. Defense minister Richard Marles defended the project this week. He stated Aukus is "absolutely happening" and described it as Australia's largest industrial undertaking.

Marles called it the biggest increase in military capability since the navy was established over a century ago. He said the project will create thousands of highly skilled technology jobs.