Minnesota polls: Klobuchar surges, Tafoya battles Ellison in Senate race

Polling averages place DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar 51% to 40% against House Speaker in the Minnesota governor's race. This 11-point lead marks a significant shift in a state where undecided voters are breaking late and disproportionately toward the Democratic candidate.

DFL analyst Abou Amara noted that Klobuchar entered the final days with a lead and that the remaining undecided voters are tilting in her favor. He stated, "What's happening is she already had a lead coming in. There was an undecided group. The undecideds are breaking late, and they're breaking late disproportionately towards Amy Klobuchar."

The U.S. Senate race shows Republican Michelle Tafoya trailing DFL candidate Keith Ellison, 48.3% to 42.5%. Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, faces a narrow margin that falls within the statistical error. The campaign has featured intense third-party advertising attacking Tafoya for previous praise of President Trump and linking Ellison to the state's fraud scandals.

Republican analyst Amy Frederikson attributed Tafoya's positioning to her decision not to heavily promote the President's endorsement. "I don't think it's the Trump endorsement that hurt Michelle Tafoya because she has not touted it. No one's really paid any attention to it, and she has comfortably made herself independent," Frederikson said.

In the attorney general contest, Ellison holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Paul Thissen, though the result remains within the margin of error. Previous polls showed the challenger ahead, but recent data favors the incumbent. The race has involved intense advertising targeting Thissen for his support of Trump and connecting Ellison to the state's fraud crisis.

Frederikson described the attorney general race as historically tight, noting that the previous election was decided by a 0.8% margin. Amara countered that Ellison is a fierce campaigner with a strong operation in the 5th Congressional District, capable of mobilizing voters who barely turned out in 2018. He added, "I think Keith Ellison's going to be fine."

Two congressional seats are also in play as national parties watch for control of the House. In the 2nd District, former Democratic state Sen. Jim Abeler faces Republican state Sen. John Utz, with the seat vacated by retiring Rep. Angie Craig. In the 1st District, at least one poll shows the Democratic challenger holding a small lead over incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn.