Young Republican Turnout Collapses as Trump Scraps Weekend Rallies

Younger Democrats are outpacing younger Republicans in early midterm voting by 31 points, a 20-point increase from the same period in 2024, according to data from Catalist. This surge in Democratic enthusiasm is forcing a strategic pivot from the White House just days before Election Day.

President Donald Trump canceled planned weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas. He is substituting these events with up to 20 telerallies. The only remaining in-person stop is a rally in Florida on Friday. Trump told reporters the decision to drop the Kansas event was unrelated to his health or the Republican candidate's polling numbers. He berated a reporter who asked about his stamina.

The shift in campaign tactics coincides with a sharp decline in Republican engagement among younger voters. Republicans under age 30 have cast only 30% of the ballots they cast at this point in the 2024 cycle. Younger Democrats, by comparison, have cast 63% of their 2024 total. The gap narrows among older voters, where Republicans age 65 and older are at 72% of their 2024 pace and Democrats at 84%.

Across 25 states reporting early vote counts, registered Democrats lead registered Republicans by nearly 15 points. That margin is 10 points wider than it was two years ago. The data indicates that the Republican strategy of relying on high turnout from the 2024 base is facing headwinds in the current cycle.

Party officials acknowledge the challenge of mobilizing their base. One Republican National Committee official said Republicans must sell voters on the president's accomplishments while convincing them a Democratic Congress is worse. The official described the task as harder than simply attacking the president. He added that the party needs to aggressively remind voters when the election is taking place.

In Texas, a super PAC receiving $10 million from Elon Musk is deploying an AI-powered robocall campaign. The calls attack Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico for accepting money from data center interests. Talarico called the move rich, noting he is the only candidate in the race with a plan to regulate data center companies. Musk, the largest single disclosed donor this cycle, posted on X that he voted early in Texas. He warned that a Democratic takeover could lead to statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

In Alaska, the Justice Department accelerated a criminal probe into whether Democrats recruited a spoiler candidate to split votes. The department issued dozens of grand jury subpoenas. A state official noted that some voters are still filling out ballots for the wrong Sullivan candidate. The DOJ filed a lawsuit seeking to delay the certification of results if the votes for the decoy candidate would have changed the outcome.