Hormuz traffic drops to zero as Iran waits for US reply
Tehran lists seven conditions for a ceasefire while Washington maintains a naval blockade and divided leadership debates the next move.
By Rosa Fuentes ·
The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to zero on Sunday, November 8, according to data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler. This sharp decline in maritime traffic follows a weekend of attacks on tankers and illustrates the immediate economic cost of the ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran. The waterway serves as a critical artery for global oil supplies, and its closure affects shipping routes for Gulf partners and international buyers.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Tehran is ready to move past the current state of neither war nor peace. He said the initiative now rests with Washington, which has not yet responded to specific terms for a ceasefire. Tehran outlined seven conditions, including the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen funds. Ghalibaf argued these items were part of a memorandum of understanding reached in Islamabad in June and must be implemented before further talks.
The United States has intensified economic pressure by tightening sanctions and maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports. President Donald Trump announced an operation to cut off overland routes used by Iran to transport advanced weapons and technology. Despite these measures, full-scale combat remains paused. Ali Vaez, deputy programme director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, described the situation as an unstable equilibrium where both sides are betting the other will reach its pain threshold first.
Diplomatic efforts are proceeding through Qatari mediators. After a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, Trump indicated there was momentum toward ending the conflict. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized Iran’s demands as unacceptable. This divergence highlights a split within the US administration, with Vice President JD Vance pushing for a negotiated deal while Rubio and others support maintaining economic pressure.
Iran continues to use the strait as its primary leverage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on Wednesday night that a massive explosion halted two supertankers traveling along an unauthorized route. The vessels were carrying a combined total of more than four million barrels of oil. By controlling which vessels pass through and dictating their routes, Tehran aims to raise the cost of the stalemate for Washington. Ghalibaf stated that the waterway would never return to its pre-war status.
Shipping data cited by Reuters showed that only five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, November 7. This is a substantial drop from the 31 crossings recorded over the previous weekend. The disruption reflects the impact of intermittent attacks on global trade. Analysts suggest the push for a deal reflects growing economic strain caused by the ongoing blockade and sanctions.
US advisers are divided on the best path forward. The recent midterm elections may influence Washington’s strategy, as a new Congress with Democratic control over spending could make it harder to sustain military operations in January. Vaez observed that the more effective America’s pressure campaign becomes, the greater Iran’s incentive to break the deadlock by force. Both sides know how to start another round of hostilities, but neither is certain how to control or end it.
