Israel Election Yields No Clear Coalition Path

Israel's election ended without a winner able to assemble a government, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Opposition parties hold more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, but Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, cannot reach a majority without Arab-led parties his campaign repeatedly ruled out partnering with. Netanyahu's Likud received the most votes, yet his coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties also falls short of 61.

In the coming days, Israel's president will consult party leaders, each of whom recommends whom should get the first shot at building a coalition. The president may name any candidate judged most likely to succeed, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. That person has 28 days to secure 61 lawmakers' support, with a possible 14-day extension; if that fails, the president can move to another candidate. The process could run for weeks or months, or end without a majority.

Based on the results, Eisenkot appears likely to attract the most recommendations from lawmakers. Forming a government is another matter: Arab parties represent 21% of the population, who generally identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Eisenkot has said their positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza bar him from governing with them. Some of those parties have refused to endorse eliminating Hamas or to call it a terrorist organization. Netanyahu's traditional partners likewise lack the seats to return him to power.

Several outcomes remain on the table. A unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot is one option; Israeli and some U.S. media reported that President Trump favors it, though NPR has not independently confirmed those reports. Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under Netanyahu. Another option is an Eisenkot government backed by Arab parties, which would give his bloc more than 67 seats, but he has rejected that route. A third is a new election, which the president has urged leaders to avoid after turnout reached its highest level in decades. A fourth is defection: Netanyahu would need about eight lawmakers from outside his bloc, Eisenkot roughly 13 if he keeps excluding Arab parties.

While negotiations continue, Eisenkot's bloc is weighing a move to replace the Knesset speaker and to advance a state commission of inquiry into the political and security failures before the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel must complete its mission against Iran, and Eisenkot warned him not to use "Israel's security for your political needs." Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, said Netanyahu has an incentive to reopen fighting: "Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war."

Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv contributed to this story.