Israel Election: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Face Uncertain Outcome

Israeli voters went to the polls on Tuesday in a Knesset election where no candidate is projected to win a decisive majority.

The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc against a diverse coalition of parties seeking to remove him from power. Polling data varies by ideological leaning, with right-leaning surveys favoring Netanyahu and left-leaning surveys favoring his opponents. Most models suggest neither side will reach the 61 seats required to form a government unilaterally.

This is the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, which authorities described as the deadliest incident since the state’s founding in 1948. The country remains engaged in multi-front conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Netanyahu’s coalition includes ultranationalist and Jewish religious partners, while his primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the centrist Yashar party.

Netanyahu argues that only he can build a government without relying on Israel’s Arab parties, which he views as a strategic risk. He also contends that the war against Iran requires his continued leadership to finish the job. U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that America might handle Iran itself if Netanyahu loses power. "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Trump said.

Netanyahu’s campaign slogan emphasizes the choice between a right-wing government and potential existential threats. He recently shared an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv to underscore the danger posed by Iran. Benny Abraham, a restaurant owner, described Netanyahu as a charismatic leader who commands global respect. "Bibi is charismatic. He has a strong voice. The world loves him," Abraham said.

Eisenkot positions himself as a pragmatic alternative who lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He served in the war cabinet during the first year of the conflict. His platform includes launching a state inquiry into the intelligence failures of October 7, a step Netanyahu has blocked. Eisenkot criticized his rival’s use of fear, stating, "This time, it won't work for him." About half of Yashar’s candidates are women, a demographic shift distinct from the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition.

Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, supports Eisenkot as the only honest alternative. "Eisenkot is not left, he's not right. He's straight and honest. He's the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family," Aharoni said.

Voter turnout among Arab Israelis, who comprise roughly 20% of the population, will be a decisive factor. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that higher Arab participation reduces Netanyahu’s ability to form a government. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said the past four years have been a social and military catastrophe for his community.

Two new parties focused on mandating ultra-Orthodox military service are hovering near the electoral threshold. Their potential entry into the Knesset could tip the balance in either direction. If no bloc secures a majority, Israel faces a path of complex negotiations, a minority government, or a repeat election. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to similar deadlocks. Plesner said that if politicians refuse to switch sides, the country will likely face another vote.