Midterm elections could reshape Congress

The 2026 midterm elections could bring major changes to Congress, as Democrats and Republicans fight for control of the House and the Senate. The results of a handful of key races, including those in Kentucky, Texas, and Michigan, will be critical in determining the outcome of the elections. These races could provide early indicators of how the night may go, though predictions are always dicey and outliers are possible.

In Kentucky’s 6th district, the nation’s earliest poll-closing time makes it a potential bellwether for the rest of the election. If Democrats win this race, it would be a strong sign of a Democratic tsunami. In Iowa’s 2nd district, a win for Republicans would signal a blue wave on the bigger side. In New York’s 17th district, the outcome of this close race could “tell us a lot” about the election.

The Senate race in Michigan is also a best-case scenario for Republicans seeking to retain Senate control. If Democrats lose this race, their path to Senate control becomes difficult. In Maine, a win for Democrat Troy Jackson would likely be a good sign for his party’s chances at the Senate majority. If Democrats pull off wins in purple or red districts in Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, those could also signal a blue-leaning night.

The results of these races could become clear before the night is over. The first polls close at 3 p.m. PST in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and more Eastern states follow at 4 p.m. The Senate majority could require a longer wait, particularly if it comes down to Alaska, which along with Hawaii is the last state to close polls, at 9 p.m. PST.

If the Democrats take the House, their full margin of victory likely won’t be clear Tuesday night. Some key swing races are in states that have slower ballot counts, including California and Pennsylvania. If a blue wave does not materialize and the race for the House majority narrows, how each party makes out could take longer to ascertain.

The results of these races will be critical in determining the outcome of the elections. The first polls close at 3 p.m. PST in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and more Eastern states follow at 4 p.m. The Senate majority could require a longer wait, particularly if it comes down to Alaska, which along with Hawaii is the last state to close polls, at 9 p.m. PST.

The races in Kentucky, Texas, and Michigan could determine the balance of power in Congress.