Raman Leads Bass by 16,500 Votes in Los Angeles Mayoral Race

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman holds a lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the mayoral race, with experts predicting the advantage will grow as the remaining ballots are counted.

As of Wednesday morning, Raman had received 51.1% of the reported votes. Bass trailed by just over 16,500 votes, holding 49% of the total. Approximately 433,000 ballots remain to be processed, which accounts for an estimated 37% of the total mayoral vote calculations. The Los Angeles County registrar of voters stated that the next batch of counted ballots is scheduled for release around 5 p.m. Wednesday.

The candidates represent distinct political factions in the city. Bass, 73, has maintained the support of the local political establishment, including the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor and the county Democratic Party. Raman, 45, has built alliances with newer groups at City Hall, such as the Democratic Socialists of America and the transportation advocacy group Streets For All. Raman first won a council seat in 2020 and entered the mayoral contest in February, challenging a candidate she had endorsed weeks prior.

Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, stated that the odds favor Raman at this stage. He expects her lead to expand as the final tallies are completed. Yaroslavsky noted that mail-in ballots sent on or near Election Day typically arrive from younger, more progressive voters. He explained that the current system accepts postmarked mail-in ballots for up to seven days after the election, with the official count taking as long as 30 days.

Paul Mitchell, head of the polling data firm PDI, observed that the early votes counted on Election Day usually skew older and more conservative. He said Raman’s lead by the end of Tuesday night presented a challenging situation for Bass’s campaign. Mitchell remarked that the numbers were likely better than Raman’s team had anticipated. He emphasized that the late count trends historically favor progressive candidates in California elections.

Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, said the emerging numbers align with expectations for a progressive shift in the final count. She noted that undecided voters who waited until later to vote may still impact the race, but the majority of late ballots are expected to support Raman. Levinson cautioned against declaring the race over, citing the volume of undecided voters in the final weeks. She added that Mayor Bass faces a difficult path to closing the gap based on past election patterns.

In June’s primary, Raman initially trailed Bass and Republican Spencer Pratt. She surpassed Pratt as more mail-in ballots were verified and counted. A similar pattern occurred in the 2022 primary, where Bass trailed developer Rick Caruso before taking the lead as the count progressed. Yaroslavsky confirmed that this late surge for progressive candidates is a standard feature of the current voting system rather than an anomaly.