Bass and Raman tied in final LA mayoral poll as campaign turns negative

Los Angeles. A new poll released on Oct. 29 places incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman in a statistical dead heat with less than a week remaining until the Nov. 3 election. The survey, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, found 19% of registered voters undecided. This result marks a sharp reversal from a month earlier, when the same poll showed Raman holding a substantial lead over the mayor.

Bass’s campaign has shifted its focus from defending her record to attacking her opponent. Bass’s favorability ratings have remained low, but some voters appear willing to support her because they distrust the more liberal alternative. Raman, a democratic socialist and City Council member since 2020, saw her unfavorability rating rise to 50% as more residents learned about her positions. The dynamic resembles the 1969 mayoral race between Sam Yorty and Tom Bradley.

In 1969, Yorty, then mayor, defeated Bradley, a councilman who was favored in the primary. Yorty claimed that “left-wing radicals” supporting Bradley wanted to “take over your city.” That negative strategy helped Yorty win. Bass’s team has adopted a similar approach, arguing that it is not the right time to turn the city over to Raman. During their final debate, Bass stated, “Now is not the time,” to give the city to Raman. She offered little defense of her own record, instead painting a picture of a collapsing Los Angeles without her leadership.

Raman’s recent momentum has been damaged by a series of errors. She made awkward television appearances and inadvertently praised the late LAPD Chief Daryl Gates. She also participated in a segment with a progressive influencer where they chanted, “Only you can stop fascist liars!” She later walked back the statement after realizing the influencer’s video superimposed an image of Bass over the footage. Raman’s colleagues on the City Council have also criticized her, with videos and fliers showing homeless encampments growing under the current administration.

Supporters of Spencer Pratt, the conservative reality TV star who finished third in the June primary, are trending toward Bass. Many of these voters reportedly dislike Raman even more than they dislike the incumbent. Bass’s campaign has also emphasized that Raman has lived in Los Angeles for only 13 years, suggesting she does not fully understand the city. This tactic mirrors Yorty’s 1969 playbook, which questioned Bradley’s local ties.

Raman counters that Bass’s record is the central issue, pointing to mismanagement and the city’s response to the Lineage fire. She argues that her reformist approach is necessary to challenge City Hall’s existing methods. Bass has criticized Raman’s positions on police staffing and the timing of replacing LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell, warning that a leadership change could disrupt the department ahead of the 2028 Olympics.

The 1969 comparison is not exact, as Los Angeles demographics and politics have changed since then. However, the pattern of voters favoring an unpopular incumbent over an uncertain alternative has occurred before. In 1973, Bradley easily won his rematch against Yorty. In 2001, Antonio Villaraigosa defeated James Hahn. History suggests that even if Bass wins, the desire for a different direction may persist among voters who feel the current leadership is not meeting their needs.

The election is scheduled for Nov. 3. With 19% of voters undecided, both campaigns are working to secure the remaining ballots. The poll indicates that the race is too close to call based on current numbers. The outcome will determine whether Bass retains the mayoralty or if Raman becomes the city’s next mayor.