Becerra leads Hilton by 27 points in California governor race

Xavier Becerra holds a 27-point lead over Republican challenger Steve Hilton in the California gubernatorial race, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, indicates that 61% of likely voters support the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, trails with 34% support.

The margin represents a slight increase from a September survey that showed Becerra ahead by 25 points. Mark DiCamillo, the IGS poll director, noted that Becerra has solidified near-unanimous support among Democrats. DiCamillo said the candidate has united party voters by consistently opposing President Donald Trump. This strategy has appealed to a base that remains energized by federal actions, including immigration raids and the administration's focus on finding illegal voting in state elections.

Voter priorities have shifted since mid-September. In the new data, 40% of likely voters identified pushing back against the Trump administration as a top election issue. This surpassed the 34% who cited reducing the cost of living as their primary concern. In the previous survey, the cost of living was the top issue for 44% of respondents, while fighting Trump was listed by 37%.

A generational divide emerged in the data. Voters younger than 50 were more likely to cite the cost of living as a major issue. In contrast, voters aged 50 and older were more likely to focus on Trump's policies. Latino voters displayed a more balanced view, splitting between the two main issues. They were also more likely than white, Black, or Asian American voters to list reducing taxes, fighting crime, and protecting immigrant communities as priorities.

Becerra's favorable rating stands at 53%, while Hilton's unfavorable rating reaches 56%. DiCamillo said Hilton's negative campaigning has not impacted his standing significantly. Among those who expect to win, 90% of Democrats and 80% of independents believe Becerra will take the office. Conversely, 58% of voters identifying with the MAGA movement and half of all Republicans expect Hilton to win.

If elected on Tuesday, Becerra would become California's first elected Latino governor and the first Latino in the role in 150 years. The survey asked how voters felt about this potential milestone. Just over one-third of all likely voters and 45% of Latino voters said they felt proud. However, 52% of Latino voters and 58% of all likely voters believed electing a Latino governor was not too important or not at all important.

The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from October 19 through Sunday. It surveyed a weighted sample of 1,477 likely voters from a larger group of 2,787 registered Californians. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.