Poll Shows Voter Support Eroding for California Wealth Tax and ID Measures

The campaign to tax California billionaires to fund healthcare is losing ground less than a week before the Nov. 3 election, according to a new poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. The survey found that 50% of likely voters plan to vote against Proposition 40, while 42% support it. Prop 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires who resided in California as of Jan. 1, with some exceptions.

The decline marks a sharp shift for the measure, which was leading in a Berkeley poll conducted six weeks earlier. Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director, said the rise in opposition is "broad-based and spans virtually all major segments of the electorate." The movement comes after opponents spent heavily against the measure. Nearly $368 million has been contributed to efforts opposing the billionaire tax, while $36 million has been donated to support it. Ads opposing the measure have aired during NFL games and "Everybody Loves Raymond" reruns.

The measure has split Democratic politicians and labor unions. Gov. Gavin Newsom has argued it will prompt wealthy residents to leave California, harming a budget that depends on the state's richest residents. The California Democratic Party and leading progressives support it, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) calling it a modest tax necessary to help Californians facing federal healthcare cuts. Support divides along age and party lines: nearly two-thirds of Democrats back the measure, while 6 out of 10 voters age 65 or older oppose it and more than two-thirds of those under 30 support it.

A separate survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, released Oct. 27, found similar results, with 52% of likely voters against Prop 40 and 46% in favor. The poll of 2,787 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 19-25 and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points in either direction.

Two other measures on the Nov. 3 ballot are designed to undercut Proposition 40 if it passes. Proposition 41 would require audits of new state special taxes and bar new state taxes exempt from a state spending limit. Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes on retirement holdings, individually owned assets and other personal savings. Both would nullify the billionaire tax if either receives more votes. In September, 37% favored Prop 41 and 33% opposed it, with many undecided. The latest poll shows 38% support and 47% oppose. Proposition 42, which led by 9 percentage points in September at 43% to 34%, now sits at 43% support and 45% opposition.

DiCamillo said backers of a ballot measure should be concerned when support registers below 50%, since undecided voters tend to vote no. "It's below 50%, and it's trending down. Both of those are ominous signs," he said. He added that while many voters were unaware the two measures were designed to undercut the billionaire tax, among those who knew, opposition was greater.

A separate measure, Proposition 39, would require voters to show government-issued identification when voting in person or provide a PIN or the last four digits of a Social Security number for mail-in ballots. It would also require state and county election officials to verify registered voters are U.S. citizens using government data. Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters oppose the measure, while more than a third support it, split largely along party lines. More than half of voters registered as "no party preference" or with a smaller party oppose it.

Proposition 3, which would make permanent an existing higher income tax rate on the wealthy that funds education, has different support. A majority of voters, 54%, back continuing the levy, while 37% oppose it. DiCamillo said the gap between support for Prop 3 and the proposed billionaire tax has been consistent across IGS polls. "Proposition 3 is already in place, and if you read the fiscal impact, if this were to pass, it maintains $5 billion to $15 billion of annual funding," he said.

These measures are among 14 that California voters will decide on Nov. 3, alongside statewide, congressional, local and judicial elections. Other measures on the ballot include Proposition 43, which would require two-thirds voter approval for certain new local special taxes, with 46% opposed and 36% in favor, and Proposition 4, which would repeal a prohibition on public financing of campaigns, with 41% supporting, 41% opposing and 18% undecided.