Texas leads early vote surge

More than 6.3 million Texas voters cast ballots during the state's two-week early voting period, which concluded on Friday. An Associated Press analysis released on Friday showed that this figure is 50% higher than the 4.2 million people who had voted early at the same point during the 2022 midterm election. The data marks the final five days before Election Day.

The increase in advance voting is part of a national trend. Across 47 states and Washington, D.C., more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots. This total is nearly 10 million higher than the count from the same period four years ago. In states that track party affiliation, the AP data indicates that 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have already cast their ballots.

Texas is the largest contributor to this national rise. In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 residents had voted as of Wednesday. This compares to 564,500 voters at the same point in 2022. The county, which voted for Democratic candidates in the 2024 presidential and Senate races, is a key battleground for the current cycle.

The state is hosting closely watched races for governor and the U.S. Senate. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico for the Senate seat. In the governor's race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is facing Democrat Gina Hinojosa. President Donald Trump visited Texas earlier this week for his third trip to the state in one month.

Other states with competitive Senate races also reported sharp increases in early turnout. South Carolina, which is electing a successor to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, saw early voting rise by 83%. Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins faces former state Senate President Troy Jackson, reported a 44% increase. Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall is running against pastor Adam Hamilton, saw a 34% jump, with approximately 83,000 more early ballots cast than in 2022.

Michigan, which held its first statewide midterm with early in-person voting available, recorded roughly 409,000 more early votes than at the same point in 2022. This represents a 32% increase. North Carolina also reported an early voting increase of more than 30% compared to the 2022 election.

The election will determine control of Congress two years into President Trump's second term. Republicans currently hold both the House and the Senate. They are defending a 53-47 Senate majority as Democrats attempt to win seats in states that have historically favored the GOP.